An ALFA poll that went into the field last week shows Republicans in Alabama continuing to gain strength.
Most recent ALFA polling has shown Obama flirting with 40% and staying within 20% of Romney. Not anymore.
Democrat Lucy Baxley has also typically been within the margin of error against Republican Twinkle Cavanaugh in the PSC President race. Not anymore.
And much like the rest of the country, Alabama is increasingly polarized along party lines.
Below are some notable numbers from the poll of likely voters which was taken between Oct. 15-16.
Political identifications:
Democrat: 26%
Independent Democrat: 7%
Independent: 9%
Independent Republican: 17%
Republican: 40%
When asked if they are a Tea Party supporter, 47% said Yes, 32% said No, and 21% didn’t say. That number is actually a little lower than what we’d seen in other recent polls where the Tea Party garnered the support of the majority of Alabamians.
U.S. President Race:
Solid Romney: 61%
Lean Romney: 1%
Solid Obama: 31%
Lean Obama: 2%
Uncertain: 5%
The crosstabs also showed that 84% of Romney supporters being supportive of the Tea Party. Interestingly, 9% of Obama supporters are Tea Party supporters as well…if that’s even possible.
Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice race:
Solid Moore: 55%
Lean Moore: 4%
Solid Vance: 34%
Lean Vance 2%
Uncertain: 4%
Some other tidbits on the Chief Justice race…
Only 40% of Alabamians have any idea who Robert Vance is while 84% of Alabamians are familiar with Roy Moore. 47% hold a favorable view of Moore while 17% view him unfavorably and 20% are neutral.
Additionally, Vance showed some improvement since the last ALFA poll by going from 6% favorable/3% unfavorable to 17% favorable/2% unfavorable. His large statewide TV ad buys have been helpful in that regard — and yet he actually lost a couple of points head-to-head against Moore.
PSC President race:
Solid Cavanaugh: 51%
Lean Cavanaugh: 5%
Solid Baxley: 37%
Lean Baxley: 2%
Baxley appears to be fading as the race hits the homestretch. While Cavanaugh has continued to raise money, Baxley recently paid herself back for loans she had given her campaign. She’s likely seeing what we are: her long career in public service is likely coming to a close Nov. 6.
I am not one to depend on ALFA polling. Tends to be a little off from the past–2008 PSC Race, Several state house and senate races in 06 and 2010, a few house and senate primary elections.
“Vance showed some improvement since the last ALFA poll by going from 6% favorable/3% unfavorable to 17% favorable/2% unfavorable. His large statewide TV ad buys have been helpful in that regard — and yet he actually lost a couple of points head-to-head against Moore.”
Campaign over.
The PSC race is sort of the end of an era. Demos limping to the finish line to say the least.
Vance is down TWENTY?! Wowowowowowowowow. Moore appears to have smashed through his perceived glass ceiling.
Bad time to be a Democrat in Dixie. No polling on Forever Wild, Amendment 2 or Amendment 4?
One party rule will ruin this state again.
That is something to be concerned about. The Tea Party presence will help to be a buffer against it getting out of control.
I’m no polling expert but I’d say you’re in trouble if you increase your name ID but lose ground in the polls. Vance appears to be suffering a similar fate to all the other Democrats in the state.